Not Doomed (Again!)
Part IV: Pies and Tents and Junk

By Shon C. Bury

In The Trenches wraps up its SPECIAL REPORT on the state of the industry. Sit down, throw your feet up, and chill the frak out as comic veteran Shon C. Bury gives you an in-depth breakdown of what's going on in comics and why they're going to be around for a very long time. This is the last of a four-part report. To read from the beginning, please click here.

Okay, let's do this...

Pies and Tents and Junk (or... Hey, Nut Job, Is an Industry Dying When It's Growing?)

We're back after a bit of a delay following the insanely awesome Emerald City Comicon. I mean, it was crazy-awesome. Show organizer Jim Demonakos and his crew put together another [another adjective like awesome], record-breaking show hot on the heels of other record breaking shows that begs the question: What f-ing END OF COMICS are all the Doomsayer Faces talking about?

Let me back up just a smidge. The single hardest part of writing this four-part report was keeping up with the very dynamic state of flux comics, the economy, and technology are in right now. All these things are rippling across each other and generally making their fluid natures even more choppy than normal. Hard for a part-time column writer to sift through, at times. Plus...water metaphors are difficult to get your hands around.

In Part I of this column, I wrote "the closer the stock market gets to dipping below 7000, the closer everything is to being All Bets Off." Even though I never tire of quoting myself, it now appears that the stock market seems to be stabilizing (that sound you hear is my knuckles doing a thing with wood), although unemployment rates suck like a Hoover right now...and who knows if we'll have much of an auto industry this time next year...

Still, we should be buoyed by the stabilizing of the market and banks...and buoyed even more by the incredible health of our convention circuit. Demonakos reported a 20% increase in attendance at this year's ECCC. More—as March 2009 sales reports trickle in—we're seeing a comic industry that is not being hammered by the worst economy since the Great Depression.

Over at the very awesome Comic Chronicles, John Jackson Miller recently reported, "a market that seems to be hanging in there, at least as compared with the general economy. While losing ground against the same month in 2008, [March] nonetheless looks to be in range with many other dead quarter months this decade." You should be reading Comic Chronicles.

Why is a dead quarter good news? Because every other industry across
the board is down. Standing pat in this economic environment is quite the challenge. How can we be keeping our head above water (I'm growing as tired of water metaphors as you are, btw) when everyone else is epically struggling? As owner of Comic Evolution recently put it while in the process of relocating and expanding his shop, "Our business trend as of late shows that people are leaning toward more affordable vices such as the products we provide." (Read: comics and graphic novels). Demonakos, also the owner of the comic store chain Comic Stop, noted that "We noticed a very light drop in sales over the holidays, but overall we're relatively unaffected [by the economy]." Like Comic Evolution, Comic Stop has significantly expanded their graphic novel offerings to meet customer demand.

I'm guessing the dense crowds at even regional shows like ECCC suggests the same thing: Comics are still an affordable—and enjoyable—form of entertainment in difficult times.

So consumers, conventioneers, and retailers seem to be holding their own. How are those publishers doing?

I make chart.

*SoO NOT scientific.

**Dynamite has consistently met my personal criterion of owning 2% of the market of late, but I am reluctant to move it into Tier 2 for the purpose of this illustration bc it will screw with the numbers. But I now consider it Tier 2.

I'm liking the raw numbers that I'm seeing here. But let's talk caveats real quick, shall we?

• March is a dead month in a dead quarter and simply can't be taken as representative of what the entire year will look like.
• March info is just a "snapshot" of the industry, plus...see above.
• I'm ready to put Dynamite in Tier 2.
• At this writing, I have not had time to study dollar shares...and probably won't bother until Q2 numbers come in...because Q1 is almost always soft and things don't start smoking until convention season is fully upon us.

So what does this all mean? In short, Diamond's threshold changes—now in full effect—don't seem to be completely wrecking the small press the way many (all?) the Doomsayer Faces predicted. And the industry appears to be relatively buffered by the economic pooh storm everyone else finds themselves in.

Tier 3 has once again proven to be a market segment capable of growth. Though over-all share will plunge once I move Dynamite into the increasingly FAT Tier 2...and a couple small timers on my Death Watch List™ succumb to the realities of undercapitalization and the ridiculously short-sighted habits of not paying their artists on time...

Moving up, Tier 2 has shown tremendous growth over the last few years, fueled primarily by the ever intrepid IDW. For the first time, IDW outpaced Dark Horse in market shares—and Dark Horse ain't exactly looking like it's getting weak (Buffy still in the Top 10? Hello?!). What does this mean? DC is clearly losing market shares to both Marvel and Tier 2. Add Dynamites 2.1% market share and this publisher segment owns a whopping 15.18% of the market. That's GD healthy. And worthy of rejoicing.

And on top with Tier 1? Mixed news. Marvel has won roughly half of the market share DC has lost. Awesome for Marvel...but it kinda sucks to see DC struggling so much. I've spoken at length about what DC is doing right, even as their superhero line fights for footing (Vertigo, backlist, non-direct market distribution channels...). Over lunch at ECCC, Marvel talent manager CB Cebulski told me that Marvel plans to add even more books to their line in 2009 (with a hiring freeze in effect!). Considering no Marvel book ever sells outside the Top 300,Marvel continues its push to not just grow Marvel, but the entire industry in the process.

So not every publisher is rock-em-sock-em robot, but the general outlook is amazingly positive in an economy that hasn't sucked this bad since the Great Depression. And all this is just within the direct market.

Other points of light that pierce the musty old blanket Doomsayer Faces like to throw over their heads:

• Haven Distro recently told me: "We have begun carrying wider lineups from some publishers who are still meeting Diamond's [threshold] numbers, but who have been run ragged by the [purchase order] policies in general."
• Top Cow recently signed a deal with Mayhem to distribute their new comics through subscription services.
• Boom! Studios has signed a newsstand deal so that their all-ages Pixar comics will have the chance to reach readers outside the direct market.
• Diamond recently got FOC-ed up! This is great news for both publishers and retailers alike.
• As evidenced by this chart, a $3.99 cover price on a good book ain't stopping anyone from buying what they want.

So, to borrow a line from my friend and poet Buddy Wakefield, my point forever endlessly is that people do a lot of worrying based on very misinformed memes. They seem to take disparate news and rumors and lack of historical perspective and allow their worst fears to eat their brains (Tea Baggers, anyone?)

The market is remarkably healthy, pushing out of its perennial niche status and making its way out of the local comic shop (that's LCS to you!). Strong backlists of graphic novels and digital delivery are making more comics available to more people more often...and that means growth. Short term and long term.

So as always, I have to repeat: Yeah, things are changing and we get a little scared, but chill the frak out...it's all going to be okay.

And...I'm spent.

All images © respective copyright holders.