By Shon C. Bury In The Trenches continues its SPECIAL REPORT on the state of the industry. Sit down, throw your feet up, and chill the frak out as comic veteran Shon C. Bury gives you an in-depth breakdown of what's going on in comics and why they're going to be around for a very long time. This is the third of a four-part column. To read from the beginning, please click [here].  Even as we emerge from the slow crawl out of our historical status as a niche industry, changes in print comics and the realities of the economy are still going to affect a lot of publishers in 2009 and beyond. And not in a good way. Remember those Tier 3 guys I talked about in the last column? A lot of them are going to fade away as Diamond continues winnowing its catalog, Previews. Who knows where they will fade away to, perhaps the same place that old soldiers and parachute pants and Hobbits fade away to. Shrug. But they will fade. This isn't meant as criticism of the content of the Tier 3 publishers that I have on my Death Watch List, but indirectly it is criticism of their business models and criticism of some of Diamond's changes. I spoke at some length in Part I and II about how short sighted some Tier 3 (and, to be fair, some Tier 2) publishers are for continually focusing on new content (seemingly, these days, on ever-increasingly bottom-of-the-barrel licensing deals...or zombies and vampires...) that really can't be packaged for the graphic novel market outside the direct market. Plus, chronic under-capitalization. The really odd thing about some of Diamond's changes (chiefly the ceasing of the Offered Again listing and the gutting of their backlist) is that it forces all publishers to double down on NEW CONTENT (AKA frontlist). This happens right at the time that all tiers of the industry move to tighten their belts in full-on erratic economic times—and right when publishers of every shape and size should be focusing on, as Paul Levitz put it in relation to DC's publishing plans, "building and managing a backlist." (my emphasis) Not only are Diamond's changes counterintuitive from a publisher's point of view, but counterproductive for their long term survival as the direct market's dominant distributor. A monopoly by any other name. In short, Diamond's changes not only hurt the smaller guys who can't afford to churn out new content month after month, but it would arrest growth by limiting a segment of the industry that's still growing at a better than average clip. Graphic novels. It would arrest industry growth if it didn't open Diamond up to serious competition by distributors who will carry a sizable backlist. It would arrest industry growth if the industry hadn't moved out of its direct-market niche status and hadn't securely wedged itself in your local bookstores and libraries.  Unfortunately, many Tier 3 publishers do not have the backlist or the operational cash flow (or, possibly, the content) to capitalize on these new non-Diamond streams of income. Let's face it, a lot of Tier 3 guys have been parasites on the belly of Diamond since the distributor emerged as the dominant distributor in the early 90s. These publishers have been surviving on non-graphic novel Offered Agains and variant covers for years. Whatever the real reason for Diamond's changes, those changes have the affect (intentional or otherwise) of a pesticide bath. Harsh words, but I believe it to be an honest analysis. The reality is that the direct market (de facto represented by the de facto monopoly, Diamond) does not have the best interest of retailers at heart. A pre-order system (as opposed to the book trade's returnable system) benefits two legs of the three-legged stool of the industry: Distributor and Publishers. These changes (recent ridiculous meme of "quality control" laughingly aside...seriously...laughingly ASIDE!) have been put in place for one reason only: to ship more copies of fewer product codes. Done! As I mentioned before, the direct market was necessary at the time it was put into place (and, to be fair, Diamond did help stabilize things during the collapse when a "strongman" distributor was needed to ensure product and dollars got to where they needed to go), but it led to the stagnation of publishing models and diversity of content. As in, lack of diversity. Prediction 1: Comics have reached a post-Direct Market/post-Diamond era. Prediction 2: This is going to kill off as much as half of Tier 3. What does a Post-Diamond Era™ mean? It's a little too early to tell, especially since I believe I'm the first to posit the idea of the Post-Diamond Era™, but here's some educated guessing for ya: As the winnowing of Tier 3 continues, all legs of the industry's three-legged stool will ultimately benefit. Retailers who even bother to carry Tier 3 books (most don't) will want to fill those empty facings with other small press books, thereby increasing sales (theoretically) on books still carried in Diamond's Previews. Publishers and Distributors will make more money per book because increased sales means increased profits. That gives the "surviving" publishers more elbow room to grow. ("Grow" not necessarily equating to "more books.")  The pie isn't going to shrink. All evidence suggests the industry will keep growing, even though 2008 was a wash and 2009 may prove to be a loser. Comics will rebound as the economy rebounds. One does not need an abacus to calculate that fewer publishers and a growing market equals something green.If we spend this time pushing for more distribution channels (to include digital) and building a diverse catalog of graphic novels, the industry will be positioned to grow in ways we haven't seen for a few generations. With more operational cash, publishers can focus on a number of things, to include: • Building their graphic novel backlist • Marketing campaigns (you have no idea how weak this has been, historically) • Better rates for artists • Better royalty systems for artists • Diversity of content Of course, this is all very rosy speculation predicated on "surviving" publishers and retailers really capitalizing on the opportunities before them. And judging by the South By Southwest panel on the subject, there's still a lot of talking in circles to be done on the digital delivery front. Regardless, there's a huge market for graphic novel readers that is being completely ignored because of the stagnation caused by the direct market. As things are now, comics do not sell huge numbers unless they're filled with superheroes or a certain vampire hunter. This market's just beginning to be tapped...but it's hamstrung by the direct market status quo.  Ultimately, all this makes for a stronger market—even if it never reaches the heights of my rosy speculations. DC's superhero line will get its act together; Tier 2 will get stronger and collectively break the publishing duopoly that has been in place for as long as many of us have been alive, let alone reading comics; and new media (to include webcontent™ and digital delivery will continue to emerge as a viable means to distribute and develop product awareness before more trees have to die and more dinosaurs have to be dug up to give readers their paper fix. Check back next week for Part IV of this special report. Take It From Me (or... Better Early Than Denied!) As I mentioned, four-day passes for this year's SDCCI are GONE. Swallowed up in record time. Since that news broke, open hotel registration has begun, and I'd be very surprised if a single room in San Diego was available two minutes after the floodgate opened. And, let's face it, you're a suckah if you're still screwing around with their hotel registration system. As I mentioned in this column, it's pretty pointless. Changes for professionals this year as well. Take it from me, get registered now if you're planning to attend...and book your hotel rooms a year in advance, as your checking out from the previous show.  Much Ado About Watchmen (or... Die. Repeat)So we've all seen Watchmen, right? Jeffrey Dean Morgan, the actor who played the Comedian, did a great job. Of course, he was fated to die. This continues a long tradition (it's got to be intentional) of Morgan, the actor who played the Comedian, did a great job. Of course, he was fated to die. This continues a long tradition (it's got to be intentional) of Morgan dying in his roles. Evidence: Grey's Anatomy Season 1? Dead. Supernatural? Dead. Weeds? Dead. Watchmen? Dead. He's good at dying; I'll give him that. Moore Interviews (or... Really? Another Alan Moore Interview?) The Mad Magician is on a roll... Digital Delivery Watch (or... Ground Meet Shifting) *Spider-Girl has almost as many lives as a cat. She's moving on over to Marvel's DCU as the digital Sensational Spider-Girl. Personally, not a fan, but I know a lot of peeps are and it's cool that Marvel's keeping this character alive online...where more books with low sales should go. I'm sure there will be a trade once the page count is there. *Speaking of comics that have gone online, Dark Horse is doing things a bit different. They've partnered with MySpace to continue the long running anthology, Dark Horse Presents. Dark Horse gets mad points for creativity here on both the digital delivery front and in staying dedicated to anthologies, long a hard sell in comics. New voices will increasingly find outlets in online venues such as this. *Hot on the heels of Kindle 2, Sony announces a dedicated comic book reader. Fine. But let's talk price point, people... And I'm spent! Check back next week for the fourth installment of Shon C. Bury's four-part special report when Shon talks about reader/retailer trends and what publishers can do to save some money. Until then, read some archives of In The Trenches or check out Shon's online comic over at Shon C. Bury's Nox. Maybe Dig In and start a thread on this topic... All images © respective copyright holders. |
