Not Doomed (Again!) Part I: Through the Looking Glass or Not?

By Shon C. Bury

Not Doomed (Again!) Part I: Through the Looking Glass or Not?


In The Trenches has returned just in time with a SPECIAL REPORT about the state of the industry. Sit down, throw your feet up, and chill the frak out as comic veteran Shon C. Bury gives you an in-depth breakdown of what's going on and why the market was ridiculously healthy in 2008—considering we're in one of the worst recessions since WWII. This is the first of a four-part column.

Read on...

Not Doomed (Again!) (or... Shhh. Here That? That's the Sound of the Ground Silently Shifting Beneath Your Feet)

Okay, so over the last few months a large (what I'm going to inaccurately call) faction has formed online declaring the END OF COMICS. Let's face it, this faction never completely goes away and seems to wait in the dark like something fungal or Voldmort-ian for opportunity to grow anew. The general state of the economy has given these individuals all kinds of occasion to piece together disparate bad news throughout our tiny little industry (as evidenced here, here, here, and (what the hell) here) and run wild with general Doomsayer-ness.

This faction views all change to how they buy and read their comics as indication that everything is falling apart—be it a cover price hike, closing up of a crappy small presser, or the launch of Amazon's new Kindle. Regardless of this persistent meme that has been around far longer than I've been in comics (cough! 1995 cough!), the Year End 2008 and January 2009 numbers actually don't look that bad—or recessionary, for that matter—
when compared to the US economy as a whole. It can be said that the numbers actually look pretty good considering the trillions of dollars crazy strawed from our economy over the last six months.

It should come as no surprise to anyone that comics has not proven to be immune to a major economic downturn—especially the kind we are playing chicken with—regardless of comics' unique niche and collectable qualities.

The US economy has just come out of the worst quarter since the end of WWII, a quarter that witnessed record layoffs, foreclosures, a money-sucking stock market, and one of the worst holiday sales records in history. You can read more about that over at The Wall Street Journal's Market Watch. (I'd encourage you to do so, as it will help you put into perspective how relatively healthy comic sales were in 2008).

The first quarter of 2009 isn't shaping up to be any better. And when billionaire investor Warren Buffett tells his shareholders that "the nation's economy will be in shambles throughout 2009" and "well beyond" you can bet that all segments of the economy are looking for ways to weather the storm. You can bet the farm (if it isn't foreclosed on) that the low-margin comicbook industry will be doing the same.

On the surface, the layoffs at DC, Wizard, Top Cow, and Devil's Due; the reduction of MAD Magazine's publishing schedule; the shuttering up of Virgin Comics, Wizard shutting down a few of their many conventions; and Diamond Distribution's staff, catalog, and inventory trimming seems like

a) It's all falling apart all at once (WTFOMG!),
b) All these events are interconnected and therefore the recession is to blame, and
c) Surely this is a sign that Comics As We Know It is DOOMED. Rip 2009.

Let me speak briefly to each:

a) First, it's not all falling apart. Second, it's not all occurring all at once either, though a batch of bad news did surface in December through February as news of layoffs rolled in and Diamond announced major changes—and people understandably started speculating on how that would ripple across the industry.

b) There is no connection between Virgin Comics shuttering up and the wave(s) of layoff from DC; there is no connection between anything that's going on at Devil's Due and Warner Bros.' decision to turn Mad Magazine into a quarterly periodical; there is no connection between Marvel's decision to slap a $3.99 cover price on premier books and Diamond's new threshold (as well as other catalog changes) and, let's say, Wizard trimming down its convention circuit.

Mix and match these events all you want...there is no if A = B and B = C, then A = C logic to be found from any of this. Each event is so mitigating one needs a lot of ears to a lot of grounds and a ripe grape vine (and maybe some other cliché metaphor) to be able to read the tea leaves (there it is!) to make some sense of all these news items. For instance, Virgin shutting down has nothing to do with a crap economy and everything to do with a) never being able to sell their books and b) forking out loads of cash on advertising, talent, and management with zero tangible results in sales and market share.

c) Nope. There are some big changes for the bottom 20% of the direct market coming for sure, some of them life and death, but Marvel and DC will continue to knock out a large number of standard/monthly/serialized 32pp floppies for the foreseeable future (and continue to own an easy 75% of both the comic and trade market between the two of them).

Even though sales of monthly comics increased for Marvel in 2008, expenditures were up and operating income was down from same time 2007, making any market growth and profit this year a wash.

Marvel will need to cut expenditures in 2009 to get their publishing segment more profitable. This means looking at editorial and managerial salaries and benefits as well as the talents' page rates...tough considering the number of exclusive contracts both Marvel and DC must honor. Since Marvel's already toying with a higher cover price, they're looking to avoid salary and page-rate cuts...OR altering existing exclusive contracts. But be warned: Raising the price of goods in a recession is not the way to weather a recession. Recessions require belt tightening.

Prediction 1: A large number of exclusive contracts at Marvel and DC will either not be renewed or will be renegotiated at the same page rate or for less guaranteed work per calendar year. People who make your books will be financially affected by that, including me, but it is to be expected in a recession. :( (More in Part III).

And Prediction 2: Marvel will continue to push original online content aggressively, as evidenced by the sheer number of times the phrase "digital media initiative" was mentioned in their 2008 Shareholder Report; while DC will push its backlist of TBP and OGNs, as evidenced by their two-year old distribution deal with Random House and their absolute dominance of the graphic novel charts. (More in Part II).

I have difficulty with brevity...

Here are a few more economic tidbits to make you feel better and to help you keep things in perspective:

• Comic and trade sales were up 1% in 2008, after years of record growth, and it looks to be on the brink of no longer being a tiny-weenie niche market.
• The US retail sector in general is down between 10% - 40%.
• The Porn Biz (long believed to be even more recession proof than comics) is down 30%. And looking for a bailout from fraking Congress...
• Q4 2008 had the biggest decline in GDP (5.5%) since 1982, the third worst quarter since 1949 as reported by Market Watch. Q1 2009 isn't shaping up to be much better.

About this time last year, I wrote my first In The Trenches column. In it I spoke at length about the strong state of the market and changes in distribution that will ultimately alter the entire landscape of traditional print comics as we have known them since the 70s. I stated:

All evidence indicates that comics will continue to grow at a healthy clip for the next few years in the traditional way. As print distribution channels reach capacity—and as the natural order of things wills it—comics will begin to be downloaded and read digitally with ever-growing access, ease, and acceptance. Within five years on the inside. And most people won't even think twice about it. (My emphasis)

And

It's safe to say that the next ten years will be the most dynamic period of change ever. In every respect. >snip< It's also safe to say that everything's going to be okay. (My emphasis again)

The theme of the column was pretty simple: Things are changing in a big way whether we want them to or not—and everything is going to be okay! This was written over a year ago after another year of record growth.

Of course, back in January 2008, no one could have fathomed that the stock market would be doing what it's doing after the housing bubble popped. Trillions disappeared from the US economy in 2008 with a There-Will-Be-Blood sucking away of American wealth. Of course this was going to ripple into comics.

Unarguably, the world is in the biggest, most dynamic state of flux that history has ever witnessed. This is not hyperbole. This is the beginning of a new era that will be unrecognizable from anything we have known in our lifetime.

Again, this is not hyperbole.

Things could get far worse in comics. We had a mediocre year in 2008 after years of healthy growth, saved only by the continued growth of the graphic novel sales in and out of the direct market. However, the closer the stock market gets to dipping below 7000, the closer everything is to being All Bets Off. So we return to the seemingly timeless meme of all the Doomsayer faces: Are Comics As We Know It DOOMED? Rip 2009?

Nope. But it is safe to say that what we are witnessing is a continuing and much needed shift in the paradigm of our arrested industry sped along by the belt tightening that a recession of any magnitude would cause as it collides with current trend lines and business plans already on the books. To me, that sounds like opportunity. I like opportunity.

Check back next week for Part II of this Special Report

Going To Bed (or... Paul Levitz Sent Me a Letter Today)

As I was wrapping up this column, I received a timely letter from DC president and publisher Paul Levitz. Okay, so I wasn't the only creator in comics that got the letter...but it was a timely letter nonetheless. Mr. Levitz' letter had one clear goal: make clear that although DC has lost significant market shares to Marvel, Dark Horse, and IDW over the last few years with its monthly, superhero comics, its graphic novel backlist sales are crazy strong. Fueled in part by interest in the Watchmen movie and graphic novel. In his own words, "We saw...graphic novel sales through bookstores grow over 40%."

Mr. Levitz went on to say this growth—and flat-out dominance of the graphic novel market—occurred "during a year when bookstore sales were generally soft."

This was fantastic news. I'll be sharing more from this letter in further columns. Prolly post the whole darn thing.

Digital Delivery Watch (or... Time Keeps On Slipping, Slipping, Slipping...)

Couple random news items:

*Marvel's aggressive investment in there digital media initiative moves full steam ahead with original online content. You can find news all over the place about the Spider-Woman motion comic. Marvel's DCU will also be producing 8pp – 16pp original stories that will tie in to their print counterparts. Talent Manager Chris Allo tells me that "these will not be ‘throw away' stories" and will (presumably) see print in TPB form. Marvel will also push forward with loads of free comics, including new and newer releases.

*Zuda's first book goes to print, proving online content-to-print models are viable. This is a variation on what Marvel's doing with their superhero line above. (I can't find the precise link anymore. The site is crap to navigate, and it makes you wonder why the homepage doesn't link to this news prominently...but it's good news regardless...)

*IDW announces a partnership with Eagle One Media to provide much of their backlist of comics online for download. Great news. IDW regularly pushes the boundaries of what a small press publisher normally does to get their books in front of readers. Hence their year-after-year growth in the market that seems to be eating DC from the bottom as Marvel eats it from the top.

Lean and Green (or... Green Movement Hits Comics = Yay!)

Portland-based comics publisher Bluewater Comics begins its second month of printing 100% green. B&B Print Source—also Portland based—prints the books. Bluewater's comics will be printed with environmentally-safe vegetable ink on Forest Stewardship Council-certified paper made from sustainable forestry practices. This is a BIG DEAL. FSC standards are stringent, to say the least.

Publisher Darren G. Davis tells me that, "Not only [is Bluewater] doing something good for the local economy by bringing printing back to the US, we feel like we are making a smaller ecological footprint in the world. Bluewater is not a huge company, but the amount of printing we do adds up. By doing our part, I hope we can inspire others to join on board to make similar changes. It is not that much more expensive for a better quality product." (my emphasis).

Seems like a no-brainer to me...

B&B Print Source recently won a BRAG award for excellence in business recycling. Bluewater should win some type of award as well, as this is exactly the direction print publishers should be heading as we move into the future of comics and a greener economy. It's great to see this step being taken by a small publisher like Bluewater. Hopefully, other printers will follow suit very soon.

I'll be reporting more on this and all things green and printerly in future comics. Cos it's awesome.

Pluggin' Junk (or... Totally Unrelated Things That I Want to Give a Shout Out)

*We have a new logo to go with the return of the column! I really like this logo, and I'm glad my Comic Bulletin editor did as well. This logo was created by Argentinean studio Estudio Haus, a group of artists that my company Space Goat Productions has had a strategic partnership with for nearly three years now. They're awesome. And their ringleader, Jok, is the awesomest!

Runner up goes to Jacob Bascle, pre-press guy on my creator-owned comic Shon C. Bury's Nox. Jacob's great. I would not have been able to put the Nox graphic novel together without him.

*Speaking of people who help me out loads with Nox, the guys over on the Wayfarer Moon webcomic have helped me out loads with tips on how to drive traffic to the Nox webcomic. Help me return the favor by clicking on through to their site. ;)

*Alan Moore gave Wired a great interview. I'm starting to be of the opinion that his comments on contemporary comics are growing irrelevant and generally curmudgeon-y, but he's still a full-on genius and any interview he gives should be read by everyone. Personally, I'm dying to buy his book of magic…

Apropos to Nothing (or... Things that Keep Me Sane)

I wanted to take a second to thank MSNBC's Keith Olbermann and Rachel Maddow for keeping me sane over the last eight years. Sometimes I can't help but think that really bad things like the Bush Administration are needed to make way for --